User:Dmh/field sightings/NOAA

A typical NOAA storm bulletin:

DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH AN EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. AMSU AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. MARIA HAS RETAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...CUT OFF FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY DELAY FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOR A DAY OR SO. AFTER A SLOW WEAKENING OVER 23-25C WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF HURRICANE-FORCE BECAUSE OF ENERGY FROM A BAROCLINIC TROUGH.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...ESTIMATED AT 045/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE LONGER-TERM FORECAST IS HOW MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE AN UPPER TROUGH LEAVING SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH AND...CONSQUENTLY...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SOUTH OF ICELAND. WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL.